9 Thoughts on Blackjack Basic Strategy

Andrew Brisman's The Mensa Guide to Casino Gambling is the best gambling book I've ever read.

However, David Sklansky's book on blackjack strategy (Sklansky Talks Blackjack) was the second best on the subject.

This blog post was inspired by the way he explains the math behind every possible decision in his basic strategy book.

With any luck, the observations in this post will transform what appears to be an arbitrary chart with green and red cells into something meaningful.

1. You always get a score of 8 or less.

This should go without saying, but let's go over it anyway.

In this situation, what is the best card you could get?

You could get an ace, giving you a soft total of 19. That's a step forward.

You could get a 10, giving you a hard total of 18. That's also a powerful hand.

In fact, a hard total of 8 or less is required to bust.

It's also nearly impossible to win with a score of 8 or less. Simply put, the dealer will not bust frequently enough to ever stand with a total less than 8.

2. If the dealer has a 3, 4, 5, or 6, you should double down with a hard total of 9.

In this situation, not all casinos allow you to double down. If that's the case where you're playing, you'll play a hard 9 just like a hard 8.

However, if the dealer has a 3, 4, 5, or 6, she will most likely bust. Even if she doesn't, doubling down on the 9 gives you a strong hand most of the time.

In this situation, an 8, 9, 10, or ace will give you a total of 17 or higher. That's 28 cards out of the deck, giving you a better-than-half-chance of improving to a 17 or higher.

When you combine that with the dealer's likelihood of going bankrupt, it makes a lot of sense to put more money into action.

3. You should almost always go for a hard total of ten.

If you start with a hard total of 10, you have a good chance of finishing with a total of 20 or 21. The only exception is if the dealer is holding a 10 or an ace. You should still hit in those situations, but the dealer has a much better chance of getting a really strong hand.

4. You should almost always double down on a hard total of 11 as well.

In blackjack, 11 is a lucky number because all you need is a 10 to get to 21.

And the deck contains more cards worth 10 than any other value.

The tens, jacks, queens, and kings all count as a ten, and there are four of each in the deck.

You can't go bust if you don't get a 10, and any card you get will improve your hand.

5. Those are the only times you'll ever double down on a hard hand.

You are not permitted to double down on any other hard total in the game.

6. If the dealer has a 6 or lower, you should stand. You're more likely to hit if she has a 7 or higher.

It is incorrect to assume that the dealer always has a ten in the hole, but the truth is that there are more tens in the deck than any other card. If you consider the types of hands you'd prefer to play, you'd probably prefer not to deal with a 16, 15, 14, or 13.

That's because those totals are far too low to be competitive.

They're also high enough that you have a good chance of going bankrupt.

The dealer, on the other hand, has no choice but to hit any hard total of 16 or less. This means she has a high risk of going bankrupt.

If you have a total of 16 versus a dealer's 6, it makes sense to avoid going bust. If and when the dealer busts, you have a good chance of winning.

If the dealer has a 7 or higher and you assume she has a 10 in the hole, you could end up with a total of 17. You'll almost certainly need to improve your hand to beat a 17, and the dealer will bust less frequently.

If you have a hard total of 12 to 18, all you have to do is remember the strange exceptions. The crucial numbers, the ones that move things from stand to hit, are 6 and 7.

To see what I mean, look at the dominant color on either side of the strategy chart.

Of course, you'll always stand on a hard total of 17 or higher. If you hit that total, you're almost certain to lose.

7. The strategy for playing pairs is not difficult.

The first thing to remember about pairs is that, with the exception of a pair of aces, they are all hard totals. This means that if you don't split them, you treat them as a single number. A pair of 5s, for example, is a hard 10. A pair of 6s is equivalent to a hard 12, and so on.

Aces and 8s are the two pairs you should always split.

Splitting aces should be the obvious move because you're starting two new hands with a good chance of becoming naturals. These blackjacks would then pay out 3 to 2.

Splitting 8s makes less sense but still makes sense. You have a hard total of 16, which is almost certainly a bust.

However, if you have two hands in which the first card is an 8, you have a good chance of getting a hard 18 on the next card. That's a hand that has a good chance of beating the dealer.

You have three pairs that should never be split: 4s, 5s, and 10s.

You won't split 4s because you'd be better off taking another card to try to get a hard total of 18. If you split, you'll end up with two hands that are likely to total 14, which isn't fun to play.

You're not going to split 5s because you're going to double down. Because you're almost certainly going to get a 10 or an ace, you'll improve to a 20 or 21 a large percentage of the time. That's far superior to having two hands with a starting card of 5. (When you get your extra card, which is another stiff hand, those hands will most likely total 15.)

And you're not going to split 10s because a hard total of 20 is such a strong hand that it doesn't require much improvement.

That leaves the following pairs for which to develop a strategy rule:

• 2s

• 3s

• 4s

• 6s

• 7s

• 9s

The general rule is that the higher the cards, the more likely you will want to split. Splitting 9s, for example, is correct unless the dealer shows a 7, 10, or an ace.

Unless the dealer has an 8 or higher showing, you'll split 7s.

Unless the dealer has a 7 or higher showing, you'll split 6s.

If the dealer has an 8 or higher showing, you won't usually split your hand. If you assume the dealer has a 10, you will be assuming the dealer has an 18. You don't want to risk more money when the dealer has such a strong hand.

8. Soft hands are the most difficult to play.

You'll double down far more often with a soft total than with a hard total. That's because you have a good chance of improving in a variety of situations without taking too many risks. It's difficult to lose when you can alter the value of one card (the ace) by ten points.

You'll always get a soft 17 or lower. However, if the dealer has a 6 or less, you will almost always double down. In fact, if the dealer has a 5 or 6, you'll always double down with a soft 17 or less. Those are the dealer's worst possible cards.

You'll almost always stand with a soft 18 or higher. You'll be more likely to hit if the dealer shows a 9, 10, or ace.

And when you have a soft 18 against a dealer 6 or less, you almost always double down.

Furthermore, not all casinos permit you to double down on soft totals. Some casinos have a house rule that allows you to only double down on a 9, 10, or 11, or a combination of those numbers.

9. A chart is not required to learn basic strategy.

In fact, memorizing a table is probably the most difficult way to learn basic strategy. I'd rather think about individual hands and how to play them.

If I were starting from scratch to learn basic strategy, I'd make a list of all the possible hard totals.

I'd then memorize how to play each of them in every circumstance.

"Hard 8 or less" would be the first item on the list. The winning strategy for that hand is to always hit. Understanding why that is the correct play makes remembering the strategy easier.

The second item on the list is "hard 9." The correct strategy is to double down against a dealer of 3, 4, 5, or 6. In all other cases, hit. Because you can't bust a total of hard 9, it's simple to remember that you'll always hit or double down.

I'd just keep going and move on to pairs and soft hands.

You'll be surprised at how quickly you can learn these rules.

Flash cards are also a good idea. You can toss out the cards for the hands you already know how to play and concentrate on the ones you need to memorize.

This maximizes the amount of learning compared to the amount of time spent.

Conclusion

Many writers make it sound like learning basic strategy is a Herculean task, but it's not, especially if you understand why decisions are made the way they are.

Assuming a 10 in the hole is useful, but it does not always result in the correct decision.