Are Slot Machines Trustworthy?

One of the most frequently asked questions in the casino gambling industry is about "trustworthiness." This question is asked about every casino game under the sun. It is also asked about every casino, particularly online gambling sites.

In this post, I'd like to address the following specific question:

Are slot machines trustworthy?

What Is Your Definition of Trustworthy?

When I search for a definition of trustworthy on Google, I find the following definitions:

• "Devoid of deception and untruthfulness"

• “Sincere”

• "Morally righteous or virtuous"

• "Equitably obtained through hard work"

When most people ask whether slots games are honest, I believe they are thinking of the first definition. They want to ensure that they are not being duped. Yes, slot machines are trustworthy in this context. I'll explain why in more detail later in this post.

I'm less certain in the second context, where "honest" means "sincere." Is it true that casinos want you to believe you can win money? I believe so, but they are well aware that anyone who plays slots for an extended period of time will lose all of their money.

Slot machines are NOT honest in the third and fourth contexts, in my opinion. Slot machines are closer to being morally neutral than they are to sinful, but your beliefs about such things may differ. It's difficult to say that slots don't appeal to one of the seven deadly sins (greed).

I'm not sure anyone could (or would) consider money won on a slot machine to be "earned" or related to "hard work." It's a game of chance. If you win, it's because you were lucky, not because you worked hard or were smart.

I'll go into more detail about that later in this post.

Mathematical Principles of Slot Machine Operation

Answering the question, "Are slot machines trustworthy?"

"Starts with understanding how the games work mathematically." The math behind the games is simpler to grasp than most people believe.

Basic probability is the first concept to grasp. When someone says "probability," they are referring to the mathematical likelihood that something will occur. That "something" is known as an event.

An event's probability is always represented as a number between 0 and 1. An event that will always occur has a probability of one. The probability of an event never occurring is zero. An event with a probability of 0.5 occurs half of the time.

For the sake of simplicity and to make the concept easier to understand, I only used whole numbers and decimals in the preceding paragraph. Probabilities, on the other hand, are almost always expressed as percentages or fractions.

How to Calculate Probability as a Percentage

Example

You're watching the evening news, and the forecast predicts a 50% chance of rain tomorrow.

That means it's about equally likely to rain as it is not to rain.

Here's another one:

You toss a coin. There is a 50% chance that it will land on heads. It also has a 50% chance of landing on its tail.

When the probabilities of all possible events are added together, the result is always 1 (or 100%).

Probability is the mathematical engine that allows gambling to take place.

How to Compute Probability

This is how you compute a probability:

You count the possible outcomes of an event. You divide that by the total number of events that can occur (including what can happen and what happens if it doesn't).

Example

You have a single six-sided die to roll. You want to know your chances of getting a 6.

There are six potential outcomes. There is only one that is a 6.

The likelihood of receiving a 6 is 1/6.

Another way to say it is to use odds, which can be useful when determining whether a bet is mathematically profitable or not.

The number of ways something cannot happen versus the number of ways it can happen is expressed by odds.

The odds of getting a 6 on a six-sided die are 5 to 1. There are five ways to NOT roll a 1, and only one way to roll a 1.

You add the probabilities of the events together to calculate a probability that includes the word "or."

You multiply the probabilities by each other to calculate a probability that includes the word "and."

Example

You want to know the chances of getting a 1 or a 2 on a six-sided die roll. Each has a 1/6 chance of happening.

1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6

You can cut it in half.

Here's another one:

You throw two dice. You want to know what the odds are of getting a 6 on both dice. Each has a 1/6 chance of happening.

1/6 X 1/6 = 1/36

Using Probability in a Hypothetical Slot Machine Game

But how does all of this relate to slot machine trustworthiness?

I'll use an example of a very simple slot machine game to show how this probability affects the fairness of the game.

This straightforward game has three symbols on each reel: an orange, a lemon, and a cherry.

The chances of getting a lemon on the first reel are one-third.

The chances of getting a lemon on the second reel are also one-third.

It is, in fact, the same on each reel.

However, the game only pays if you get three of the same symbol on each reel.

The likelihood is 1/3 X 1/3 X 1/3, or 1/9.

Assume the payoff for obtaining three lemons is four to one.

Suppose the payoff for getting three cherries is three to one.

Finally, we'll assume that the reward for getting three oranges is even money.

• The odds of winning four coins are one in nine.

• The odds of winning three coins is also one in nine.

• The odds of winning one coin is also one in nine.

• The odds of winning nothing are 6/9, or 2/3.

Let's say you put $1 into each spin and played 9 spins, getting every possible result once.

Once, you win four coins. Once, you win three coins. You only win one coin. You've won a total of eight coins.

However, you have placed 9 coins in the game.

What happened to the extra coin?

That's where the casino's pockets are.

The casino creates a situation in which it is guaranteed a mathematical profit over the long run by setting up the payoffs so that they are lower than the odds of winning.

Of course, most modern slot machines are not quite this straightforward. For one thing, there are more symbols on each reel. Another thing is that the chances of getting one symbol may be different from the chances of getting another.

For example, you might have a 2/3 chance of getting a pear but only a 1/24 chance of getting a cherry.

What Happens in the Long Run versus the Short Run?

By changing the odds and payouts of the symbols, the casino can be sure to make money over a long period of time and many spins.

However, in the short term, a player may win a large jackpot or lose several times in a row.

That is the nature of chance. In the short run, anything is possible. In the long run, the figures approach theoretical probability.

When using an extreme example, this becomes clear.

On a single spin, you could win 100 coins, 1000 coins, or nothing.

Over an infinite number of spins, your average loss per spin will match the mathematical expectation.

The mathematical expectation becomes closer as you approach an infinite number of spins.

Do Slot Machines Defraud?

ALL slot machines are programmed to give the player a mathematical advantage.

To make a healthy profit, casinos do not need to cheat.

To make a healthy profit, slot machine designers and manufacturers do not need to cheat.

In fact, games are thoroughly audited for fairness in well-regulated jurisdictions (such as Nevada). When they audit a game for fairness, one of the things they look for is whether the jackpot is impossible to win.

That is the main concern that many players have when they inquire about whether slot machines cheat.

Is there a jackpot in the game that is impossible to win?

In almost every case, the short answer is "no, they don't."

But you have no way of knowing what your chances of winning the jackpot are. The odds and probabilities of slot machine games are hazy. A computer program known as a random number generator (RNG) generates the results.

Only the designers and casino managers are aware of the exact settings for that RNG.

In fact, you could be playing two identical slot machines on the casino floor that have different odds of winning. This is not only legal, but also common.

Is that considered cheating?

It is not, according to the letter of the law.

Is it truthful?

Yes, I'd say. Having two games next to each other with different odds is purposefully deceptive. It's legal, but it's not genuine in the least.

Online slot machines are no different, except that these games have been known to cheat in some cases. However, there are no reputable casinos or software providers.

How do they do it?

They create games that are impossible to win.

The reasons perplex me. If you provide an honest game, you will make far more money in the long run.

Even a moron can see after a while that he will never win a rigged casino game on the Internet.

Otherwise, smart people will continue to deposit money and wager it at breakneck speed if they're occasionally winning something, even if they're showing a net loss over time.

That is how gambling operates.

How Do Video Poker Games Work?

You must understand right away that video poker games are NOT the same as slot machine games. On the surface, they appear to be the same, but the math and gameplay are diametrically opposed. And the philosophy underlying these games is also distinct.

This is why:

A random number generator is used in a video poker machine to replicate the odds found in a 52-card deck of cards. You are aware of the likelihood of receiving a specific symbol. Any given card has a 1/52 chance of appearing.

A card of a specific suit has a 14 chance of appearing. A card of a certain rank has a 1/13 chance of appearing.

The House Edge and Payback Percentages

Mathematicians and computer programs can use this information to calculate the actual payback percentage for these games.

What exactly is a payback percentage?

It is the percentage of each bet that is returned to the player on average over time. It is the inverse of the house edge.

There is no way to calculate a game's payback percentage on a slot machine. It's impossible because you have no way of knowing how likely you are to get a specific symbol.

However, in a video poker game, you can calculate all of the possible outcomes. And, because you know how much the game pays out for different combinations, you can add the expected value of each to get the game's overall payback percentage.

And do you know what's even better?

In almost every case, the payback percentages for video poker games are significantly higher than the payback percentages for slot machines.

Even the worst video poker game has a payback percentage of around 95%. However, the better games have payback percentages of 98% or higher. Some (rare) games have pay tables that offer the player a slightly positive game, such as 100.2%. However, those figures are based on a perfect strategy on your part.

But even the best slot machine games usually have a payback rate of 95% or more. The more common games fall into the lower 92% range.

Hourly Loss Rates Expected in Slot Machine Games vs. Video Poker Games

What does this mean for your bank account?

Let's take a look at how much money you can expect to lose playing two different games:

We'll begin with a standard slot machine game that has a 94% payback percentage. You're betting $1 per spin and spinning 600 times per hour. You anticipate winning 94% of your bets, which means you anticipate losing 6% of your bets.

The casino expects you to lose $36 on this game on average over time, which is 6% of $600.

Then we'll look at a 9/6 Jacks or Better game in which you have perfect strategy. The payback percentage for this game is 99.54%, implying a 0.46% house edge.

We'll assume you're playing a quarter machine with a five-coin bet per hand. You're betting a little more money on each bet—$1.25. The majority of video poker players are as fast as slot machine players, playing 600 hands per hour. In action, that's $750/hour.

However, with a house edge of 0.54%, your expected loss on such action is only $3.77.

That's correct.

Slots are ten times more expensive than video poker.

Video poker has several advantages over slots. One of these is the element of skill. When you're gambling, you might not want to think about what you're doing.

But, if you're anything like me, you want to be able to exert some control over your destiny.

You can do that in video poker. The decisions you make while playing each hand have a direct impact on your bankroll.

If you play your cards correctly, you will be playing one of the best gambling games in the house.

Should You Ever Play Slot Machines?

This is a valid question. Should you ever play slot machines?

Here are some advantages and disadvantages of playing slots:

Pros:

• Except for keno, slot machine games have the highest jackpots of any gambling game. Slots are the way to go if you're looking for a life-changing jackpot, similar to what you'd see if you won a lotto drawing.

• They necessitate little attention or effort on the part of the player. This is ideal for some people's personalities. Relaxing in front of the spinning reels appears to be a good deal for many people.

• They come in an infinite number of variations. There is a slot machine game for every possible theme. Do you adore Elvis Presley? There will be a slot machine for it. When you were 12, did you play Dungeons & Dragons? There's also a slot for that. The themes and games are nearly limitless.

Cons:

• They have some of the worst odds in the casino. The house edge on slot machines varies greatly. Some of them may have good odds, but the majority have a house edge of 5% to 10%. This isn't too bad. After all, the house edge in roulette is 5.26%. The problem is that slots play so quickly that you can easily lose more money than you thought you could.

• You have no idea what the odds are. Slot machine games cause me philosophical consternation. No other casino game reveals your odds. The house edge for any casino table game can be calculated. It can also be calculated for video poker. However, you are never given the information required to calculate the house edge on a slot machine. This is completely unacceptable to me.

• They're made to be addictive. Manufacturers of slot machines spend millions of dollars researching what kinds of stimuli will put the majority of people in a "flow" state. Flow is great for increasing personal productivity at work, but it's terrible for playing a gambling game. A slot machine is the most addictive casino game.

Conclusion

Yes, slot machines are honest—at least in some ways. Casinos do not make outright false claims about slot machines. You have a chance of winning $1 million if a game has a maximum jackpot of that amount.

What you don't know is how likely or unlikely it is that you'll win that much money.

Is this deception on the part of the casinos?

I believe it is, to some extent.

However, all casino games have math behind them that favors the casino. That's just the way the games are. Slots are no exception in this regard.

Whatever casino game you choose, if you play it long enough, you will eventually lose all of your money.

The only exceptions are certain games that can be played with advantage techniques, but that's a whole different topic.

The only way to gain an advantage in a slot machine game is to cheat.

Cheating is clearly illegal in the majority of jurisdictions. You'd be better off learning how to play expert-level poker or how to count cards in blackjack.