Odds and Strategies for Baccarat

Punto banco is another name for baccarat. Regardless of which name you favor. It continues to be among the oldest and most well-known casino games ever created.

The Asian gambling community loves to play baccarat. Additionally, it's a go-to game for high rollers and casino whales. Baccarat is popular in Macau in the same way that slot machines are in the United States.

But a quick look at the game's math and odds shows that it's just a guessing game with a chance of winning that's close to 50/50.

Basic Rules for Playing Baccarat in a Tutorial

There are two varieties of baccarat available:

1. Traditional baccarat - You can play this game with high stakes in high limit areas of casinos all over the world. James Bond used to play this version of the game (before Daniel Craig). With three dealers and typically around a dozen players, it is played at a large table.

2. Mini baccarat - The same game is played in mini baccarat, but the risks are lower. Although some mini baccarat games (also known as "midi baccarat") are played for higher stakes at a larger table, this variation of the game is faster and played at a smaller table.

The same rules apply to both versions of the game, though some specifics may change.

Baccarat and blackjack are similar in some ways. Multiple decks of cards are used, and the cards have point values (usually 8, but sometimes 6). But unlike blackjack, the card values are as follows:

• An ace is worth one point (not 1 or 11 as in blackjack).

• Jacks and 10s have no points (not 10 as in blackjack).

• Like in blackjack, each of the other cards has a point value equal to its rank. The 2 of spades, for instance, is worth 2 points, the 3 of hearts, 3, etc.

As in blackjack, the cards are dealt from a shoe. The dealer turns over a card each time she begins a new shoe. The number of cards the dealer burns before dealing determines the card's point value. (Except for face cards and 10s. These count as 10 cards for the purpose of determining how many cards are burned.)

The last card in the shoe is cut into 16 pieces for the game's cut card. The dealer receives the cut card as a cue to begin again with a fresh pair of shoes. After the first hand in which it shows up and one more hand after that, the new shoe starts.

You begin by placing one of the three bets listed below:

1. Player

2. Banker

3. Tie

Two extra bets are available in some games:

1. Player pair

2. Baker pair

The dealer then deals the player and the banker each two cards. The point values of the cards are added up to determine the score for each hand. The score is determined by the rightmost digit.

Example

The player receives a total of 17 after receiving a 9 and an 8. That counts as seven in total.

Here's another illustration:

The banker receives a 5 and a 2, for a final score of 7. That is also counted as seven.

It cannot be broken.

Only 10 possible results are available: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9.

There isn't necessarily an end to the action (but there might be). A third card may be dealt to either the player or the banker. The game has complex guidelines for how to decide this as well:

The game is over if either the player or the banker has a total of 8 or 9. Nobody receives a second card.

The player receives another card if his total falls between 0 and 5, and neither he nor the banker has a total of 8 or 9.

The dealer is dealt an additional card if the player doesn't receive another card and the dealer's score is between 0 and 5.

Based on the following rules, the dealer may or may not receive another card if the player DOES receive a second card:

• The banker always gets an extra card with a total of 2.

• The banker always gets an extra card with a total of 3 UNLESS the player’s 3rd card is an 8.

• The banker always gets an extra card with a total of 4, UNLESS the player’s 3rd card is a 0, 1, 8, or 9.

• The banker always gets an extra card with a total of 5, UNLESS the player’s 3rd card is a 0, 1, 2, 3, 8, or 9.

• The banker never gets an extra card with a total of 7 UNLESS the player’s 3rd card is a 6 or 7.

• The banker never gets an extra card with a total of 7.

By contrasting the banker's score and the player's score, you can determine the winner. The score with the higher total wins. However, the payouts for each wager vary:

• Banker receives payment at 19 to 20. (For instance, you would win $19 if you wagered $20 on the banker. You would win $95 if you wagered $100 on the banker. However, this isn't how it's handled in practice at the table. On this wager, the casino pays you even money, but they also include a laminated marker for every 5% commission you owe. Before beginning a shoe or whenever a player chooses to cash out, they gather that money.)

• Player receives an even money payout. (For instance, you would win $20 if you wagered $20 on the player.) You would win $100 if you wagered $100 on the player.)

• Payoff for ties is 8 to 1. (If you wagered $20 on a tie, for instance, you would win $160.) In the event of a tie, player and banker bets are regarded as a push. In the event of a push, you receive your initial wager back with no winnings. In other words, you neither win nor lose anything.

• Pair wagers return 11 to 1. (For instance, you would win $220 if you wagered $20 on a pair.)

Odds, Probability, and House Edge in Baccarat

Given the aforementioned guidelines, figuring out the house edge for this game is not difficult, but it may be beneficial to discuss the idea of the house edge.

The house edge is the average amount that the casino thinks it will win from each bet over the long run. It is described in percentage form.

Example

The house edge in American roulette is 5.26%.

Here is how that sum is calculated:

On a roulette wheel, there are 38 numbers. There are 2 green, 18 red, and 18 black.

If you win a wager on black or red, you will receive even money.

You will win 18 bets and lose 20 bets if you place 38 bets of $100 each and achieve mathematical perfection—landing on each number only once. At $100 each, there were $1800 in winnings compared to $2000 in losses, resulting in a $200 net loss.

You lost an average of $5.26 per wager when you divide that $200 by the 38 wagers you made.

The house advantage is there.

The house advantage in baccarat varies depending on the wager you make:

• The house advantage on the banker bet is 1.06%.

• The house advantage on the player bet is 1.24%.

• The house advantage on the tie bet is 14.36%.

• The house advantage on the pair bet is 10.36%.

These figures assume you're taking part in an 8-deck game. The house edge increases to 14.44% on the tie bet in a game with six decks, but it remains the same for banker and player bets. Additionally, the house advantage on a pair wager rises to 11.25%.

If you can locate a game with just one deck, the house edge changes to:

• Banker, 1.01%

• Player, 1.29%

• Tie, 15.75%

• Pair, 29.5%

A casino that offers a baccarat game with a commission on the banker bet that is less than 5% may also be found. If you can find one, it significantly lowers the house advantage. In an 8-deck game, the house edge drops to 0.6% at 4%. The house advantage is only 0.14% at 3%.

You would actually have an edge of 1.24% over the house if you could find a game that offered the banker bet with no commission at all. Good luck locating such a game. As skilled mathematicians, casino managers steer clear of letting the general public play games where they have an advantage.

Additionally, you might come across a casino that pays out more on player or tie bets. You might discover a casino that pays 1.01 to 1 on the player bet, for instance. The house edge for that wager drops to 1.04% as a result, making it more advantageous than the banker wager.

On a tie bet, some casinos also offer a 9 to 1 payout. The house edge on that wager drops to 4.84% as a result.

All of these numbers are for a game with 8 decks, unless I said otherwise somewhere above.

Egalite Bets

An egalite bet was a choice I hadn't previously described. These bets are common in English casinos, but they are rare or even unheard of in other places. A side wager on a particular occurrence during a game of baccarat is known as an "equity bet." It is similar to some of the wagers offered at the craps table.

Depending on the casino you're playing at, these bets have different payouts.

One common example is being able to bet on a certain tie, such as 0-0 or 1-1. Depending on the bet, these usually pay out 45 to 1 to 225 to 1 on average. (Some connections have a higher likelihood.)

The odds on a 6 or 7 tie are 45 to 1, and that is the tie that is most likely to occur.

At 225 to 1, a wager on two wins. The least likely tie to win is that one.

These wagers share a high house edge in common. In actuality, none of them have a house edge lower than 10%.

You can bet on ranges like 1-3 or 4-5 in some casinos. Naturally, since you have more chances to win, the payouts are lower for these. The typical payout for a 1-3 egalite is 70 to 1, but the house advantage is still 10.86% on that wager.

However, some of the ranges provide the player with betting odds. The house edge on a 4-5 egalite is only 7.28%. Still a bad wager, but not quite as bad.

An wager with such a high house edge is referred to by seasoned casino patrons as a "sucker bet."

Strategies, Advice, and Tips for Baccarat

It is always preferable to play against a lower house edge than a higher one. You can take that gambling adage with you to your grave.

The banker bet is the only wager you should ever place in baccarat because it has the smallest house advantage.

The tie bet and the pair bet should be avoided, even if you are playing on a hunch. There is an excessive amount of house edge.

If you think with your gut, you might be able to support a player bet. But I don't believe in luck or hunches.

I have faith in math.

Using just one sentence, you can sum up an accurate baccarat strategy:

Take the banker's bet every time.

However, baccarat tables provide pencils and score cards so you can keep track of trends and adjust your wagering accordingly.

This endeavor is foolish.

On a certain wager, you will see both winning and losing streaks.

It will be tempting to change your bet so you can keep winning while you're on a roll.

Or you might be tempted to place a wager the opposite way, thinking that the dealer bet couldn't possibly win after so many consecutive wins.

Make no effort.

Trends can only be seen in retrospect. Future events are unaffected by them.

There is even a phrase that describes this untrue notion. It is known as the gambler's fallacy.

Blackjack players might wonder if card counting can give them an advantage in baccarat. Theoretically, this is possible, but from what I know, getting an edge would be very rare and wouldn't be enough to give you a competitive edge.

But "dealer tells," a gambling strategy that gives blackjack players an advantage, also exists. The dealer will then take some action to let the player know how strong their hand is.

In baccarat, the dealer won't show you the next card on purpose before you have to place your next bet, but it will happen sometimes.

You gain an advantage and can place bets accordingly if you know what the first card in a round of baccarat will be.

Based on which card is flashed, a chart provided by The Wizard of Odds shows the wager that offers the best chance of success. Based on the exposed card, the following bets are correct:

• 0 or A, 2, 3, 4 or 5 are banker bets.

• 6, 7, 8, or 9: Bet on the participant.

In this scenario, the player has a 6.76% edge over the casino, which is a significant advantage.

Here's some guidance for newcomers as well:

Be discrete if you see this occurring at the baccarat table. If the casino discovers your scheme, they will make adjustments, and you will forfeit any gains you may have made.

Counting Cards and EZ Baccarat

In EZ Baccarat, you receive even money on a banker bet and are exempt from commission. To compensate for this, the casino treats a banker total of 7 with 3 cards as a win even though it is actually a push.

They also include two more side bets:

• The Panda 8 Bet – This bet pays off at 25 to 1 if the banker has a 3-card total of 8.

• The Dragon 7 Bet – This bet pays off at 40 to 1 if the banker has a 3-card total of 7.

The Panda 8 wager has a house advantage of 10.19%.

You can gain an advantage in this game by using card counting. For an explanation of why counting cards in blackjack works, read our comprehensive guide to card counting. With a little imagination, you can imagine how it would also apply to EZ Baccarat.

The card values to use are as follows:

• 0, 1, and 2 count as +1

• 3, 4, 5, and 8 count as -2

• 6 and 7 count as -1

• 9 counts as +4

You have a slight advantage (0.01% or 0.02%) over the casino when the count exceeds 11.

I believe that counting cards is too much work for an edge that small.

But if you're into that sort of thing, it might be entertaining.

Visit Discount Gambling for more information on card counting with these side bets.

Conclusion

Baccarat is a relaxing, classy game that doesn't require any special skill from the player. You can play a game with a relatively low house edge and have a lot of fun as long as you keep in mind to always bet on the banker.

Card counting can be used to your advantage when playing EZ Baccarat. Additionally, you might be able to locate a dealer who is showing off her cards as she deals. That may also give you an advantage.

However, both situations demand more work than they are worth. I still believe that learning how to count cards in blackjack is your best option if you want to become an advantage player.

However, if you're looking for a mindless diversion, baccarat is a fantastic game.