Every NFL season is full of surprises, with teams exceeding expectations and pulling off unexpected wins. While many bet on the favorites, NFL underdog picks can lead to exciting opportunities for bettors. Let’s dive into how to identify the best underdog picks for Week 7 and strategies to make smarter bets throughout the season.

Best NFL Underdog Picks for Week 7

The matchups in Week 7 promise plenty of excitement, and three teams in particular stand out as potential underdog winners. Here's why you should consider backing them:

1. Houston Texans (+122) to Beat Green Bay Packers

The Texans have been one of the strongest teams in the AFC South this season, holding a 5-1 record going into this matchup against the Green Bay Packers. While the Packers are favored by a field goal, there are solid reasons to believe that Houston can pull off the upset.

For starters, the Packers’ defense has been vulnerable against the pass, allowing 1,491 passing yards this year, the sixth-most in the NFL. Houston quarterback CJ Stroud is more than capable of taking advantage of this, ranking sixth in the league with 1,577 passing yards. Additionally, Stroud has thrown 10 touchdowns, a stat that puts him among the top quarterbacks in the league.

On the other hand, Green Bay’s quarterback Jordan Love has managed 12 touchdowns this season but faces a formidable Texans defense. Houston’s defense ranks in the top three overall and has recorded 19 sacks. If they can keep the pressure on Love and contain running back Josh Jacobs, the Texans have a real chance of winning this one outright.

2. Cleveland Browns (+223) to Beat Cincinnati Bengals

The Browns come into Week 7 with a 1-5 record, facing the 2-4 Bengals. Although Cleveland has struggled this season and just traded star wide receiver Amari Cooper, they have the potential to upset Cincinnati.

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has a losing record against AFC North opponents, and Cleveland’s defense will be crucial in this matchup. The Browns’ defense ranks second in the league for limiting opponent completion rates, allowing just 58.6%. This ability to force mistakes could spell trouble for Burrow, who hasn’t been at his best against Cleveland in past matchups.

Myles Garrett, last year’s Defensive Player of the Year, will be key to Cleveland’s game plan. If Garrett can disrupt Burrow’s rhythm and the Browns’ defense holds firm, Cleveland might just come out on top.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+165) to Beat Baltimore Ravens

The Buccaneers face a tough task in Week 7, going up against the Baltimore Ravens, who are on a four-game winning streak. However, there are signs that Tampa Bay could hand Baltimore its first loss in weeks.

Baltimore’s defense has been weak against the pass, giving up the most passing yards (1,789) and ranking fifth in terms of passing touchdowns allowed (11). This bodes well for Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield, who is tied for the most passing touchdowns (15) this season and ranks among the top quarterbacks in passing yards with 1,489.

Tampa Bay’s potent passing attack should be able to exploit the Ravens’ vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s defense has been allowing too many points, giving up over 23 points in five of their six games so far. All signs point to a potential Buccaneers win at home on Monday Night Football.

Tips for Successful NFL Underdog Betting

Now that we’ve looked at the specific underdogs to back for Week 7, let’s explore some strategies to enhance your chances of success when betting on NFL underdogs.

1. Identify Teams and Players Who Thrive as Underdogs

Some teams perform better when playing as underdogs, and these trends can be useful for identifying potential upset winners. Players and coaches often use the underdog label as motivation to prove doubters wrong.

Look for teams with a strong record as underdogs or those that consistently perform well against the spread (ATS). For example, the Washington Commanders, Indianapolis Colts, and Cleveland Browns were great underdog picks based on ATS data from previous seasons.

In addition, consider the track record of head coaches and quarterbacks in underdog roles. While these trends don’t guarantee a win, they can provide valuable insights into which teams may rise to the occasion.

2. Compare Strengths and Weaknesses in Matchups

Every NFL matchup features a favorite and an underdog, but are the odds set correctly? It’s important to dig deep into the specifics of each game, paying attention to strengths and weaknesses that may give the underdog an edge.

For instance, an underdog team might excel in areas where the favorite is weak, such as a strong passing game against a porous secondary. Injuries and depth issues on key positions, such as the offensive line, are also factors that can swing a game in favor of the underdog.

Don’t rely solely on obvious factors like star players’ injuries. Sometimes, the subtler issues like fatigue, travel schedules, or poor performance in certain conditions can provide the edge you need to identify a winning underdog.

3. Watch for Letdown and Look-Ahead Spots

Recency bias can have a big impact on how odds are set. After a big win, the odds may tilt too much in favor of a team that’s riding high. But in the NFL, letdowns happen frequently, especially after a hard-fought victory. Even good teams can be caught off guard, especially if they’re already thinking ahead to a bigger game.

Thursday Night Football games are notorious for causing letdowns due to the short turnaround from the previous week. Favorites might not perform as expected, offering prime opportunities for underdogs to pull off an upset.

Conversely, look-ahead games are those in which a favorite might be distracted by a big rivalry or key matchup coming up the following week. Teams in this position often fail to focus on the task at hand, providing an opening for the underdog to capitalize.

4. Monitor Line Movement and Shop for the Best Odds

Line movement can offer important clues about how a game will unfold. Pay close attention to how odds shift throughout the week and where the money is flowing. If the line moves against a public favorite, it may indicate that bookmakers are more confident in the underdog’s chances than bettors.

In addition, always shop around for the best odds. Small differences in odds can have a big impact on your overall returns. For example, getting an underdog at +9 versus +8.5 can increase your chances of winning.

Multiple sportsbooks often offer slightly different odds, so it’s worth checking where you can get the best deal for your bet.

Final Thoughts

Betting on NFL underdogs can be both thrilling and rewarding. While favorites are expected to win, underdogs often provide the best value for savvy bettors. By identifying key matchups, analyzing team strengths and weaknesses, and staying alert for letdown or look-ahead situations, you can increase your chances of making smart, profitable bets.

This Week 7, teams like the Texans, Browns, and Buccaneers offer great opportunities for underdog bets. With the right strategy and a keen eye for detail, you can stay ahead of the game and enjoy the excitement of betting on NFL upsets.